Hope everyone had a great weekend. Fun day in the market on Friday for us! Both positions in the TSP portfolio ended the week strong. UGAZ up +6% and I’m up over 20% on that trade now! Getting close to locking in a big win there!
JNUG also delivered with a +15% move on Friday! Glad I added to this last week. I’ve detailed my plan below.
I’m not trading many positions lately in this delicate market but I’ve been hitting some nice wins on the ones I have been getting involved with. I’ve been finding it easier to ride out solid positions for a week or more right now and capitalize on trends. As you can see above, it’s been working very nicely and offsets any losers that have come along the way.
Another thing I am doing well lately is adding on dips and then selling into pops. This sounds simple enough, but when you have the trend correct it really works well. The trouble comes if you DON’T have the trend correct and you’re buying dips that keep going lower.
In overall market news, investors are not properly pricing in the inherent risks with the Trump administration right now. So far, it is all talk and little substance. Investors will grow wary of this soon and I think the rally will fade. I also think there is a lot of risk around the ties between Trump and Moscow. There’s too many facts out there that are not properly being addressed by the White House.
I’m not here to claim either side is right, but as an investor I need to try to make the best sense out of the political world and how it will effect my trades. Right now I think the markets have fully priced in the most optimistic Trump scenario for the economy. With rising rates and what I feel is a very uncertain political environment, I’d say the best bet is that markets flatten or go slightly lower from here. The REAL risk I see is some unknown political event that would really shake confidence. That would lead to a serious hit to the markets.
I hate to sound too bearish, but with so much optimism it’s hard for me to see it continuing too much longer. Right now I sleep better at night holding gold and being mildly short the overall markets. I also think we’re getting close to buying bonds again.
OK. Here’s the ETF Scorecard for today:
For the TSP Portfolio:
UGAZ – After the +6% move on Friday, my plan is to see how it opens today, lock in some profits, and buy back on a dip. I think the outlook for nat gas is strong, but hate to lose some of these profits in the short-term.
JNUG – Finally got the bounce I was looking for. Since I averaged down, I’m now up about 5% or so on the trade. Good chance I will lock in some profits ahead of the Fed meeting, and will continue to ride half of my position out. I’ll alert everyone whenever I choose to sell some of my shares.
ETFs I’m Watching
GUSH – Expecting oil, and XOP to fade a little, and have been patient waiting for a base to form. I think that if XOP dips back down into the 35s again, I’ll let it settle and look to start a position here.
UWT – In anticipation of an oil bounce I’m starting to eye UWT for a quick play. Just because something is down a lot doesn’t make it “cheap”. I’m patiently waiting on this trade to find support and the technicals to come into line.
LABD – Still waiting for IBB to show signs of stalling again close to $300, then look to pick a nice entry in LABD close to $10 with a 10%+ profit target. Will update more if this presents a nice entry. IBB is looking very strong right now so I don’t want to step in front of this quite yet.
TMF – I mentioned above that I think we are close to buying bonds. They got hit pretty hard when news of a rate hike became nearly 100% certain. I still want to be cautious here and give it a little time, but TMF is high on my WL.
Other stocks that I’m watching..
NVDA – Hasn’t retraced down to the level I’ll be a player at, but certainly interested in picking some of this up in my personal account should it dip back down. It’s very close now and the technicals are coming into line now. I will make a move on this in the next few days if we don’t make a new low past $95 that we saw on the 6th.
Petra’s trade alerts are free for just 1 more week!
I hope you’re taking advantage of all she’s offering right now. When her service launches in the upcoming weeks, you’ll be able to get even more value from her with her expert education and more in-depth trade alerts!
Petra’s New Trade Updates and Portfolio
It’s a mixed bag right now, but Petra has locked in a lot of profits this month already if you’ve been keeping track. She may be slightly down on multiple positions, but one of her greatest assets is her ability to plan before entering. She chooses her stops carefully and prevents any large losses.
LPX 445 shares at 23.94
SHOP at 64.12 for a nice 6% gain.
ARRY at 10.95
Good luck out there!